The promise of 15-minute cities

It's one of the best urban planning ideas. And it won't happen.

This is one of those ideas that seems so simple and appealing it’s a wonder it took so long for someone to come up with the concept. A 15-minute city is one in which all amenities, or at least the majority of them, can be reached by a 15 minute walk or bike ride. Everything—your grocery shopping, restaurants, coffee shops, bars, schools, even your dentist and doctor—are only a quarter hour away. Your work commute would take 10 to 15 minutes. That’s a couple blocks on foot and two or three miles on a bike.

The idea goes back to 2015 (only 2015!) and is credited to Carlos Moreno, an urban planner and a professor at the Université de Paris. A lot of folks are promoting the idea as a way to advance public health. Few things are better for you than moderate walking and cycling. And by getting folks out of their cars, we reduce the costs of oil extraction, pollution, and climate change.

This idea appeals to me on another level. Reducing car use increases prosperity. If I lived in a 15-minute city, I would not spend money on gasoline, car washes, new tires, oil changes, or car insurance. These cities would also save a lot of time, particularly for folks who have kids. Your kids would walk to school, band practice, and football games. There would be an end to the endless hours spent in the family van hauling kids to their activities.

This seems like one of those totally simple concepts, and something in the back of the mind says it should be easy. Some cities have had limited success in creating one or more versions of 15-minute cities. Paris is possibly the leading metropolis committed to convenient living. The City of Lights has constructed over 600 miles of bike routes, including separate bike lanes and converted bus lanes set aside for cyclists.

Cities that are accessible on foot or by bike have bike lanes and neighborhood destinations like this café. Photo by the author.

London has given itself the goal of becoming the world’s most walkable city. Barcelona has developed “superblocks,” that restrict cars, trucks, and other vehicles in nine-block grids of the city. This enables residents to reclaim urban spaces and create “mini-villages.” People in Sweden are going even further, creating dense “one-minute cities,” where walking is emphasized. Even the city synonymous with sprawl, Los Angeles, has an initiative to turn much of LA into livable villages.

Great idea, but it won’t take over the world

This seems like the best idea ever, but I’m sensing that 15-minute cities will remain the exception rather than the rule. Much of the scientific papers written on the subject have been inconclusive. Planners and researchers are still finding out what works and what doesn’t. And the idea has been criticized for having a one-size-fits-all approach.

An assumption I had was that older cities, places that became large cities before there were automobiles, would be predisposed to 15-minute urban planning. But some old cities, such as Rome, are places where residents are burdened with cars or other limits to convenient living.

Seattle has set the goal of becoming a 15-minute city, and enjoys the recognition of being a great city to get around on two feet. But presently, of the almost 90 neighborhoods in the Seattle metro area, only nine would fit the definition of a 15-minute neighborhood, while 27 neighborhoods are extremely unwalkable, with fewer than ten percent of their residents having convenient amenities.

I am skeptical about the success of 15-minute cities because other, similar ideas have had problems getting off the ground. Transit-oriented development, which is the building of development around transit hubs and is akin the 15-minute idea, became somewhat vogue among urban planners starting in the mid-1990s and has been promoted by national and international organizations. Yet research has had mixed results. Some studies find that residents, even with transit-oriented development, still have limited access to amenities via public transport.

Crazy opposition

Transit-oriented development did not have the additional political/crazy opposition that has cropped up around 15-minute cities. In the age of MAGA—when everything is political but often crazy at the same time—there is now insane and fierce opposition to convenient living, with some claiming that it is government overreach and an attempt to control our lives or some effort to turn cities into open-air prisons.

Of course, if it’s rightwing and a little bit crazy, Jordan Peterson has shared his thoughts. This is what he says about 15-minute cities: "The idea that neighborhoods should be walkable is lovely. The idea that idiot tyrannical bureaucrats can decide by fiat where you're 'allowed' to drive is perhaps the worst imaginable perversion of that idea — and, make no mistake, it's part of a well-documented plan." Podcaster and conspiracy theorist Joe Rogan has voiced his fears and opposition as well. Another skeptic, Tulsi Gabbard, is part of Trump’s administration.

The craziest thing that I’ve read on more convenient living are the fears promoted by some that Hurricane Milton was generated to turn Tampa, Florida, into a 15-minute city.

The way I see it, there is not a great amount of push on this very workable idea, and there is so much crazy opposition that 15-minute cities will probably remain on the drawing board and won’t help us create a better, more livable world.

Have a look at a related Green Dispatch from September 2023.