Am I seeing the effects of sea level rise? Of climate change? Are you?
The small island where I work is eroding. Why?
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Last week I wrote about research finding that climate change is likely and will likely affect building foundations in Chicago and other cities around the world. The changes being brought about are slight, about an inch, maybe an inch and a half of the earth underneath the Windy City rising or falling, but those changes could have profound ramifications on building foundations.
There may be similar, small changes in the environments around all of us. And I may be noticing one that is literally moving the earth under my feet. As many of you already know, I work on an island that straddles the San Diego Bay and an estuary. The island is very small, about 60 acres. New York City’s Central Park on the isle of Manhattan is 843 acres, so that might give you an idea of how small this island is.
This very small island may be getting even smaller, due to climate change. This past week, I went out with Ralph, a really terrific and dedicated volunteer, and Jason a new intern, to clear some salt bushes that have overgrown a path to a viewing platform overlooking the southern portion of the San Diego Bay.
While we were there, I noticed that the ground around and beneath a portion of the platform had eroded away. When I started working on this island nine years ago, there was a strip of land, about ten feet, between the platform and the beach. There was even some vegetation there. That is all currently being washed away into the bay.
An arial photograph taken nine years ago shows the platform, some land, then the beach and the waters of the bay. This portion of the island is certainly slipping away.
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I checked around much of the rest of the island and found the same thing happening a bit farther west from the platform. The trail in the photograph below used to be several feet from the beach. Now, a portion of the trail is being washed away.
It could be that larger and faster boats are leaving bigger wakes during high tides. But the island is in the southern portion of the bay, away from its mouth and away from most of the boat and ship traffic. The few boats that make it down around the island sail by slowly, as they have for decades.
There may be a chance that we are getting stronger storms than before. Recent science indicates that climate change is causing weather to become more extreme, including stronger storms. The stronger storms may be churning up bigger waves that eat away at the island.
Sea level rise could also be a factor. We talk about sea level rise as though it is some future event, but it has been happening, albeit slowly, for some time. During the 20th century, the sea level along the coast of California rose by 0.71 feet (8.5 inches). This includes the water in the bay. So although the rise is slight, when the tides come in, that little bit of rise in the water leads to a little bit of island eroding away.
A report from NOAA issued in February of 2022, predicts sea levels along the coast of San Diego and the rest of California will rise by one and a half feet by the year 2100. That most certainly will lead to more erosion.
What do you think? Stronger storms? Rising seas? Both? Or would this erosion happen climate change or no climate change? How about you? are there slight changes in your environment that may be caused by global heating? Longer heat waves? More storms? I’d love to start a conversation about this with as many folks as possible. Please don’t be shy about clicking the “Leave a comment” button below.
The counter argument, if you will, is that beaches (i.e. sandy shores) migrate and always have. I do see a lot of complacency with regard to sea level rise based upon the misperception that a gradual rise will take a long time to be relevant. In fact, storm surges multiply that rise to levels that have become significant already. But, Paul, is your erosion coming from the direction of the bay or from precipitation runoff?
The water table has dropped significantly in the county I live in up here in SW Oregon. I first noticed it when the blackberry bushes on our front slope dried up & died, which had never happened. Pine trees further up also slowly began to die. In subsequent years there have been reports of many private wells going dry, needing deeper ones drilled.
I'm assuming over-usage is a factor, but the droughts have certainly had their influence.